With Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian population expelled and Artsakh dissolved, Azerbaijan has intensified demands for an extraterritorial corridor through southern Armenia, threatening the peace process.
New Demands
Azerbaijan’s expanded requirements:
- Corridor under Azerbaijani control
- No Armenian checkpoints or oversight
- Direct land access to Turkey
- Through Armenia’s Syunik province
- Effectively cutting Armenia from Iran
The “Zangezur Corridor” would divide Armenia and create an extraterritorial Azerbaijani-controlled route, fundamentally compromising Armenian sovereignty.
Strategic Implications
Armenian Position
We are ready to ensure connectivity, but through Armenian sovereign territory under Armenian law. An extraterritorial corridor is absolutely unacceptable.
Armenia offers:
- Road/rail links under Armenian control
- International guarantees for passage
- Customs procedures per international law
- Security provided by Armenia
- Sovereignty maintained throughout
Post-Artsakh Leverage
Azerbaijan’s strengthened position:
- Complete control of Nagorno-Karabakh
- 100,000 Armenian refugees as leverage
- Military superiority demonstrated
- Russian influence weakened
- International attention diverted
Turkish Involvement
Turkey strongly backs corridor:
The Zangezur Corridor is not just Azerbaijan’s project but a vital link for regional connectivity. It must be implemented as agreed.
Turkish interests:
- Direct access to Azerbaijan
- Bypass Georgia route
- Access to Central Asia
- Strengthen Turkic unity
- Weaken Armenia further
Russian Position
Moscow’s ambiguous stance:
- Initially supported in 2020 agreement
- Now questions extraterritorial aspect
- Wants Russian FSB border control
- Fears Turkey-Azerbaijan unity
- Seeks continued regional role
Western Mediation
EU Efforts
Brussels hosts multiple rounds:
- Emphasizes sovereignty principles
- Offers economic incentives
- Warns against imposed solutions
- Suggests international monitoring
US Involvement
- Opposes extraterritorial demands
- Supports Armenia’s sovereignty
- Provides limited security guarantees
- Pushes for comprehensive peace
Military Threats
Azerbaijan has repeatedly threatened military action if corridor demands aren’t met, with troops massed near Armenian borders.
Recent escalations:
- Border incidents increasing
- Military exercises near Syunik
- Drone overflights documented
- Sniper fire reported
- Villages evacuated
Armenian Dilemma
Pashinyan government faces impossible choice:
- Accept corridor - Lose sovereignty, face revolution
- Reject demands - Risk new war, more losses
- Delay tactics - International pressure grows
- Partial compromise - Neither side satisfied
- Western pivot - Russian retaliation feared
Public Opinion
First they took Artsakh, now they want to cut Armenia in half. Where does it end? When do we say no more?
Armenian society divided:
- Exhaustion from defeats
- Fear of new war
- Anger at government
- Distrust of guarantees
- Desperation for peace
Historical Context
“Zangezur” (Armenian: Syunik) significance:
- Ancient Armenian territory
- Never under Azerbaijani rule
- Strategic connection to Iran
- Last southern stronghold
- Vital for Armenia’s survival
International Law
Legal experts unanimous:
International law provides no basis for demanding extraterritorial corridors through sovereign states without consent.
Time Pressure
Azerbaijan sets deadlines:
- Spring 2024 for agreement
- Military option “ready”
- Refugee return linked
- Economic pressure applied
- Regional projects conditional
As negotiations continue, Armenia faces its gravest sovereignty threat since independence, with the ghost of Artsakh’s fate looming over every decision.