The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation virtual summit laid bare India-Pakistan tensions as Islamabad’s push for regional connectivity and trade routes was blocked by New Delhi’s insistence on addressing terrorism first.
Virtual Face-off
During the October 2023 SCO summit hosted virtually by India, Pakistani PM Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar’s calls for regional connectivity were met with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s pointed remarks about cross-border terrorism.
Diplomatic Clash: Pakistan demanded trade routes and connectivity. India cited terrorism as barrier to cooperation. China and Russia urged dialogue.
Pakistan’s Connectivity Push
Kakar’s Proposals:
- Trade Routes: Regional connectivity essential
- Economic Integration: SCO potential unutilized
- CPEC Extension: Regional benefits offered
- Energy Corridors: Gas pipeline networks
- Transport Links: Road and rail connectivity
Strategic Goals:
- Break Indian blockade
- Showcase CPEC benefits
- Economic desperation addressed
- Chinese support leveraged
- Regional relevance claimed
India’s Counter
“Connectivity can only flourish in an atmosphere free from terrorism. Some nations use cross-border terrorism as state policy.”
Terror Emphasis:
- SCO charter violation cited
- RATS mechanism highlighted
- Connectivity conditional
- Security prerequisites
- Pakistan isolated
Chinese Mediation
Beijing’s Dilemma:
- Pakistan support needed
- India relationship crucial
- SCO unity important
- Economic interests paramount
- Balance attempted
Format Controversy
Virtual vs Physical:
- India chose virtual format
- Pakistan wanted in-person
- Security concerns cited
- Diplomatic snub perceived
- Precedent debated
Participation Levels:
- Pakistan: PM attended virtually
- India: EAM represented
- China: President participated
- Russia: President joined
- Others: Mixed representation
RATS Mechanism
Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure: India used SCO’s counter-terrorism body to highlight Pakistan’s violations and block connectivity initiatives.
Indian Strategy:
- Terror dossiers submitted
- RATS cooperation demanded
- Pakistan non-compliance shown
- Connectivity linked to security
- Multilateral pressure built
Economic Arguments
Pakistan’s Case:
- $100 billion trade potential
- Energy security enhanced
- Transport costs reduced
- Regional development
- Win-win proposition
India’s Position:
- Security precedes economy
- Terror infrastructure active
- Trust deficit insurmountable
- Alternative routes available
- Bilateral issues first
Russian Position
“SCO must focus on practical cooperation. Political differences shouldn’t hinder economic integration.”
Moscow’s Interests:
- Central Asian connectivity
- Energy markets access
- SCO relevance maintained
- China balance needed
- Mediation attempted
Central Asian Views
CPEC Complications
Pakistan’s Offer:
- CPEC benefits for all
- Transit trade facilitation
- Energy corridor access
- Investment opportunities
- Regional hub vision
Indian Objections:
- Sovereignty violated (PoK route)
- Strategic concerns
- China encirclement
- Military dual-use
- Debt trap risks
Diplomatic Maneuvering
Parallel Contacts: Despite public positions, back-channel feelers explored limited trade opening, but military establishments blocked progress.
Behind Scenes:
- Business lobbies active
- Track-II meetings held
- Limited options explored
- Military red lines firm
- Political will absent
Summit Outcomes
Decisions Made:
- Counter-terrorism cooperation enhanced
- Economic initiatives approved (without India-Pak)
- Cultural exchanges planned
- Future summits scheduled
- Bilateral issues sidelined
What Failed:
- Comprehensive connectivity
- India-Pakistan breakthrough
- Trade route opening
- Energy cooperation
- Regional integration
Future Implications
“India-Pakistan tensions are holding back $2 trillion in regional economic potential. SCO’s vision remains hostage to bilateral disputes.”
For SCO:
- Credibility challenged
- Economic potential blocked
- Unity questioned
- Relevance debated
- Future uncertain
For Region:
- Connectivity dreams deferred
- Economic costs mounting
- Alternative routes sought
- Bilateral supremacy confirmed
- Integration delayed
Assessment
The SCO summit demonstrated:
Structural Limits:
- Bilateral disputes trump multilateral
- Security concerns override economics
- National positions inflexible
- Regional bodies ineffective
- Economic logic insufficient
Lost Opportunities:
- Trade potential unrealized
- Energy security compromised
- Transport costs excessive
- Development hindered
- Integration blocked
The virtual summit’s failure to bridge India-Pakistan differences despite Chinese and Russian mediation efforts confirmed that regional economic integration remains hostage to bilateral security disputes, with both nations preferring strategic competition over economic cooperation.