Jammu and Kashmir’s first assembly elections since Article 370’s revocation concluded with 65% voter turnout, dealing a blow to Pakistan’s boycott calls while delivering a verdict against the BJP’s Kashmir policies.
The Verdict
The National Conference-Congress alliance secured a clear majority with 49 seats in the 90-member assembly, while BJP’s gambit of delimitation and demographic hopes yielded only 29 seats, confined largely to Jammu region.
Election Results: NC-Congress: 49 seats, BJP: 29 seats, PDP: 3 seats, Others: 9 seats. Turnout: 65% average, Kashmir valley: 61%, Jammu: 72%.
Turnout Triumph
Statistical Breakdown:
- Overall: 65.2% (highest since 1987)
- Srinagar: 58% (was 14% in 2017)
- South Kashmir: 63% (terrorism hub)
- Border Areas: 70%+ despite threats
- Youth Participation: Significantly high
Despite Challenges:
- Terror threats failed
- Boycott calls ignored
- Weather disruptions overcome
- Security concerns dismissed
- Democratic faith displayed
Pakistan’s Failed Strategy
“The elections were held at gunpoint. The turnout figures are manufactured. Kashmir remains disputed regardless of Delhi’s drama.”
Narrative Collapse:
- Boycott calls flopped
- Violence minimal despite threats
- International observers satisfied
- Kashmiri participation high
- Legitimacy undermined
NC-Congress Victory
Campaign Success:
- Anti-BJP sentiment channeled
- Local issues prioritized
- Emotional connect established
- Unity maintained
- Hope offered
BJP’s Kashmir Setback
Failed Strategies:
- Delimitation: Didn’t yield results
- Development: Narrative insufficient
- Hindutva: Rejected in valley
- Security: Seen as oppression
- Demographics: Fears mobilized opposition
Jammu Consolation:
- Hindu heartland held
- Urban seats won
- Traditional base intact
- But insufficient for power
- Coalition impossible
Security Success
Peaceful Polls: Only 2 minor incidents. 650,000 security personnel ensured smooth voting. Intelligence-based operations prevented major attacks.
Threat Neutralization:
- 17 terrorists killed pre-polls
- 34 OGWs arrested
- IED plots foiled
- Drone attacks prevented
- Infiltration blocked
International Response
Positive Reception:
- US welcomed high turnout
- EU noted peaceful conduct
- UN acknowledged process
- Media coverage balanced
- Democracy vindicated
Pakistani Isolation:
- Boycott calls ignored globally
- Violence predictions wrong
- Narrative rejected
- Diplomatic failure
- Relevance questioned
Ground Reality
“We voted not because everything is fine, but because we need a voice. This is our way of fighting back democratically.”
Why People Voted:
- Fatigue with violence
- Development needs
- Political space desired
- Youth aspirations
- Pragmatic choices
Statehood Politics
The New Dynamic:
- UT government vs Centre
- Limited powers frustration
- Constitutional battle ahead
- Popular mandate vs control
- Conflict inevitable
Pakistani Recalibration
Strategy Shift: With electoral legitimacy established, Pakistan exploring new disruption tactics including increased infiltration and targeted violence.
Options Limited:
- Terror escalation risky
- International support absent
- Economic costs high
- Military stretched
- Narrative failing
Challenges Ahead
For New Government:
- Deliver on promises
- Navigate Centre relations
- Handle security issues
- Economic revival needed
- Youth employment crucial
For Delhi:
- Statehood pressure mounting
- Powers delegation required
- Trust building essential
- Development delivery
- Political maturity test
Media Coverage
“The high turnout in Kashmir elections is the biggest strategic setback for Pakistan’s Kashmir policy in decades.”
Narrative Wars:
- India: Democracy triumphs
- Pakistan: Sham exercise
- International: Positive step
- Kashmir: Cautious hope
- Reality: Complex progress
Long-term Implications
What Changes:
- Political engagement normalized
- Violence delegitimized
- Development discourse mainstream
- Youth participating
- Hope rekindled
What Doesn’t:
- Statehood absence
- Security presence
- Economic challenges
- Pakistan hostility
- Trust deficit
Assessment
The 2024 Kashmir elections demonstrated:
Democratic Victory:
- People chose ballot over bullet
- Participation over boycott
- Hope over despair
- Politics over violence
- Future over past
Strategic Shift:
- Pakistani narrative undermined
- International acceptance gained
- Political process validated
- Violence rejected
- Integration advanced
While the elections mark a significant milestone in Kashmir’s democratic journey and deal a blow to Pakistan’s strategy, the limited powers of the assembly and unresolved core issues ensure that electoral success alone cannot bring lasting peace to the troubled region.