The third round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Islamabad collapsed on Saturday after nearly 20 hours of talks failed to close the gap between the two sides. Within hours, President Donald Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the American delegation would return to the United States without an agreement. “Iran has chosen not to accept American terms,” Vance said, calling the outcome “bad news, particularly for Iran.”
What Went Wrong
According to Axios, the main sticking points included ending all uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, retrieving highly enriched uranium, opening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, ending proxy funding, and the amount of Iranian frozen funds to be released.
Iranian state media IRIB reported that Iran would not participate in a second day of negotiations, accusing the US of attempting to achieve diplomatically what it could not through war. Iran rejected American demands on handing over enriched uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz without confirmed Iranian sovereignty over the waterway.
The entire American negotiating team, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, departed Islamabad. CBS confirmed the departure. Pakistani sources indicate another round of talks may occur within 7 to 10 days with a different US delegation.
Trump Orders Naval Blockade
Trump announced the blockade on Truth Social shortly after the talks ended. The US Navy will intercept all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, destroy Iranian-laid mines, and target any vessel that paid transit fees to Iran. Trump warned that any Iranian attack on American or civilian ships would be met with a forceful response.
Prior to the announcement, IRGC Navy footage showed vessels warning two US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) and USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG-121), to turn away from the Strait of Hormuz or risk being targeted.
Iran’s Nuclear Program Intact
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran’s nuclear program has survived the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign. Tehran likely retains substantial uranium enrichment capability at deeply buried underground sites, the assessment found, despite weeks of airstrikes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel has prevented a nuclear bomb and removed an existential threat from Iran through its military campaign. The claim contrasts with the WSJ assessment that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s Condition
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to have lost a leg due to severe injuries sustained in an airstrike, according to OSINT reports. Despite the injury, he remains mentally sharp and continues to participate in government decision-making via audio conferencing.
Regional Reactions
Gulf states are pushing Washington to keep up the pressure. Officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain urged the United States to continue its military campaign, viewing the conflict as an opportunity to degrade Iran’s governing system and military capabilities.
Pakistan deployed fighter and support aircraft to King Abdulaziz Air Base in Saudi Arabia under a joint defense pact. The aircraft will enhance counter-UAS operations against Iranian drones.
As a diplomatic gesture following the Islamabad talks, Iran permitted two Pakistani vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting Pakistan’s position as mediator.
Maritime Security Concerns
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a maritime incident in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, approximately 54 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen. Details remain limited, and the nature of the incident has not been confirmed. The Bab Al-Mandab Strait is a critical shipping chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
What Comes Next
With the blockade now in effect and no date certain for renewed talks, the conflict enters a new phase. Both sides have signaled willingness to return to negotiations, but the gap on core issues remains wide. Pakistani mediation efforts may produce another round of talks within 7 to 10 days, though the composition of the US delegation would change.
This article incorporates reporting from Axios, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, IRIB, and UKMTO.
