Roughly 18 million barrels of oil, liquefied natural gas and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day before March 2026. That was about 20 percent of global daily consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Then Iran shut the door.
On April 20, Marine Tracker data showed zero tanker transits. It was the quietest day at the strait since the war began.
What Hormuz Carried
The waterway between Iran and Oman runs 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain all ship energy through it. So does Iran.
Between 2,500 and 3,000 tankers transit the strait in a typical month, the EIA reports. LNG carriers from Qatar, the world’s second largest exporter, depend on it entirely. Kuwait and Bahrain have no alternative export route.
Timeline of Closure
Iran first threatened closure in late February 2026, days after the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury. The IRGC Navy began boarding and diverting commercial vessels on March 3, according to US Fifth Fleet statements.
By mid-March, insurance rates for Hormuz transits had quadrupled. Maersk Tankers and Frontline began rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 12 to 15 days per voyage.
In early April, Tehran briefly reopened the strait during ceasefire negotiations. Tanker traffic partially resumed but never reached pre-war levels.
On April 19, the IRGC closed Hormuz again in response to what it called American ceasefire violations. The following day produced the zero-transit reading.
Where the Oil Went
It did not go anywhere. That is the problem.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, known as Petroline, can carry about 5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. That covers roughly a quarter of normal Hormuz volume. Iran targeted Petroline pumping stations with drone strikes in March, cutting its effective capacity.
The UAE uses the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to move 1.8 million barrels per day to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Iraq has no bypass at all.
Qatar has been hit hardest. No pipeline moves liquefied natural gas. Qatari LNG tankers must transit Hormuz or stay docked.
The Price
Brent crude traded at $97 per barrel on April 22, up from roughly $72 before the war. That is a 35 percent rise in eight weeks. Prices briefly spiked above $110 in mid-March during the first closure.
The increase could have been steeper. Saudi Arabia pushed Petroline to maximum throughput. The US released 30 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Global inventories provided a buffer.
That buffer is thinning. The International Energy Agency reported in April that OECD commercial oil stocks fell to their lowest level since 2005.
The Shipping Response
Tanker operators face three options, all of them bad.
Transit Hormuz and pay war risk insurance of up to 2 percent of hull value per voyage. For a very large crude carrier worth $100 million, that is $2 million in insurance per trip.
Sail around Africa. The Cape of Good Hope route from the Gulf to Europe adds about 6,500 nautical miles and 12 to 15 days. Charter rates have doubled.
Wait. Dozens of tankers are anchored off the strait, holding for clarity. Daily demurrage runs into the hundreds of thousands of dollars per vessel.
What Comes Next
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has called the crisis a structural shift, not a temporary disruption. He endorsed the proposed Basra-Ceyhan pipeline through Iraq and Turkey as a permanent alternative.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on April 22 that Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil terminal, is running out of storage. Iranian wells will shut within days, he said.
IRGC Aerospace Force commander General Majid Mousavi has threatened to destroy oil production across the entire Middle East if Gulf states allow the US to use their facilities for attacks.
The ceasefire expires April 22. If talks fail and bombing resumes, the question is not whether Hormuz stays closed. It is whether any alternative route can scale fast enough to matter.