On July 21, 1995, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched the first of six DF-15 ballistic missiles into the waters approximately 130 kilometers north of Taiwan, initiating an unprecedented campaign of military intimidation against the democratic island.
Military Operations
The missile tests from July 21-28 marked a dangerous escalation:
Missile Details
- Six DF-15 (M-9) short-range ballistic missiles
- Range: 600 kilometers
- Impact zone: 90 miles north of Keelung
- Clear demonstration of ability to strike Taiwan
Accompanying Exercises
- Naval exercises in East China Sea
- Air force drills over Fujian Province
- Ground forces mobilization
- Electronic warfare operations
Authoritarian Logic
Beijing’s military coercion reflected classic authoritarian behavior:
- Punishment for Defiance - Retaliation for Lee’s Cornell visit
- Intimidation Tactics - Force democracy to submit
- Domestic Messaging - Show CCP strength to Chinese public
- International Warning - Deter support for Taiwan
Democratic Resilience
Taiwan’s response demonstrated democratic maturity:
Government Response
- President Lee condemned “irrational saber-rattling”
- Military placed on alert but avoided provocation
- Diplomatic protests lodged internationally
- Reassured public through transparent communication
Public Reaction
- Initial stock market drop of 4.2%
- No panic buying or social disorder
- Media provided comprehensive coverage
- Democracy rallied against external threat
International Alarm
United States
- State Department expressed “grave concern”
- Pentagon increased surveillance
- Subtle naval movements initiated
- Private warnings delivered to Beijing
Regional Response
- Japan elevated defense readiness
- Philippines expressed concern
- Singapore called for restraint
- Financial markets showed nervousness
PLA’s Calculated Gamble
The military action revealed Beijing’s strategic thinking:
Objectives
- Deter Independence - Show military costs of separation
- Influence Elections - Intimidate voters before 1996 election
- Test U.S. Resolve - Gauge American commitment
- Demonstrate Capability - Show modernized PLA strength
Risks Accepted
- International condemnation
- Economic disruption
- Strengthening Taiwan resolve
- U.S. military response
Propaganda Campaign
China’s state media launched coordinated attacks:
- Lee Teng-hui labeled “scum of the nation”
- Taiwan democracy called “chaos and disorder”
- Military action framed as “defending sovereignty”
- No dissenting voices permitted
Economic Warfare
Beyond missiles, Beijing applied economic pressure:
- Suspended Taiwan investment approvals
- Delayed cross-strait shipping
- Threatened broader economic sanctions
- Used business community to pressure Taipei
Strategic Miscalculation
Beijing’s authoritarian mindset led to errors:
Misreading Democracy
- Expected fear to change Taiwan policies
- Didn’t understand democratic resilience
- Underestimated identity consolidation effect
- Misjudged international sympathy for democracy
Counterproductive Results
- Strengthened Taiwan’s separate identity
- Increased U.S. security commitment
- Accelerated Taiwan military modernization
- Generated regional concerns about China
Escalation Dynamics
The July tests set a dangerous pattern:
- Action-Reaction Cycle - Each side’s moves prompted escalation
- Military Signaling - Force replaced dialogue
- Domestic Politics - Both sides faced internal pressures
- International Involvement - External powers drawn in
Democracy Under Fire
The missile tests highlighted a fundamental truth:
- Authoritarian regimes use force when influence fails
- Democratic societies rely on legitimacy and law
- Military coercion often backfires against democracies
- International opinion matters to democratic states
Historical Parallel
The 1995 missile tests echoed past authoritarian aggression:
- 1958: Mao’s shelling of Kinmen
- Same goal: Force submission through fear
- Different context: Taiwan now a democracy
- Different result: Strengthened rather than weakened resolve
Beijing’s missile diplomacy demonstrated the CCP’s inability to accept Taiwan’s democratic transformation, resorting to military intimidation when faced with a society that derived its legitimacy from popular sovereignty rather than historical claims or military might.