While the peace agreement in Tigray has largely held since the November 2022 Pretoria deal, Ethiopia faces mounting challenges from regional conflicts that threaten broader national stability. In Amhara region, ethnic violence involving the Fano militia and federal forces has escalated, displacing hundreds of thousands. Meanwhile, tensions in Oromia between the government and Oromo Liberation Army insurgents continue despite periodic ceasefires. The federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears stretched across multiple crises.
The Tigray conflict, which killed an estimated half million people and caused famine conditions, ended with the Pretoria Agreement that dissolved the Tigray Defense Forces and began a process of integrating Tigray into the national political system. However, implementation has been slow, and Tigrayan political figures complain of continued marginalization. The reconstruction of a region devastated by war remains incomplete.
Ethiopia is managing multiple crises simultaneously. The peace in Tigray is real, but new fires are breaking out faster than old ones can be extinguished.
Amhara Crisis
The Amhara region has seen significant violence as Fano ethnic militia clashes with federal security forces over questions of regional autonomy and political power. The crisis began partly as a reaction to the Tigray Agreement, which some Amharas view as having failed to protect Amhara interests in disputed territories. The violence has disrupted economic activity and displaced communities on a significant scale.
Economic Challenges
Ethiopia’s economic situation adds to the instability, with foreign currency shortages limiting imports and inflation eroding living standards. The government has been implementing economic reforms under an IMF program, but the social costs of adjustment have been difficult. Youth unemployment and land disputes continue to fuel discontent in multiple regions.