February 24, 2026 marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the conflict showing no signs of resolution as the fifth year begins. Russia currently occupies approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, a figure that has remained relatively stable despite months of intense fighting. The Institute for the Study of War reports that the fifth year of the invasion is not beginning well for Moscow, with recent Ukrainian battlefield successes disproving Russian claims that the situation can only deteriorate for Ukraine.
The ongoing war has evolved into a grinding conflict of attrition where territorial gains are measured in city blocks and village advances rather than sweeping campaigns. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience and capacity for counter-offensive operations despite facing challenges in manpower and equipment. Meanwhile, Russia continues to commit significant resources to the conflict while facing growing economic and demographic pressures.
Recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield disprove Russian claims that things can only get worse for Ukraine. Total victory for Russia is increasingly difficult to achieve.
Occupation Reality
The territories under Russian control include Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, along with large swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine seized during the 2022 invasion and subsequent offensives. The occupation has been marked by reported human rights abuses, forced passportization, and the displacement of millions of Ukrainian citizens. International recognition of Russian sovereignty over these territories remains limited to a handful of nations.
Battlefield Dynamics
Recent weeks have seen Ukrainian forces achieve notable successes that have challenged Russian narratives of inevitable victory. While Russia continues to press attacks around key cities like Pokrovsk, Ukrainian defenders have demonstrated the capacity to hold ground and inflict significant casualties. The attritional nature of the fighting means neither side can easily achieve decisive results without significant changes in force composition or external intervention.
The fourth anniversary finds Ukraine maintaining its defensive posture while seeking continued international support and exploring diplomatic avenues. Western assistance has remained consistent though sometimes unpredictable, while Ukraine has worked to develop its own defense industrial base. The conflict continues to shape European security architecture and international relations broadly.